Historical data suggests that Bitcoin has never recorded three consecutive months of positive performance during a bear market year. This trend appears poised to continue in 2024, with May likely to close in the red for BTC, following positive performances in March and April, as well as the beginning of this month. Recent on-chain data indicates that short-term investors may be capitulating amidst Bitcoin’s recent price struggles.
Are BTC’s Short-Term Investors Losing Conviction?
In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst RugaResearch reported a significant movement of Bitcoin by a specific group of investors within the past day. This group, known as short-term holders, is often considered the most reactive segment of the market. Specifically, RugaResearch noted that 107,760 BTC within the 1-month to 3-month Spent Output Age Band moved in a single day, representing the largest on-chain movement within this age band in over seven months. The Spent Output Age Bands is an on-chain indicator that categorizes spent transaction outputs into age brackets, illustrating the proportion of total coins moved and their period of inactivity.
The 1- to 3-month Spent Output Age Band tracks Bitcoin purchased between late February and late April, coinciding with the initial stages of BTC’s recovery, up to approximately $80,000 last month. RugaResearch explained that a significant movement within this age band, such as the one recently observed, suggests that recent investors are reacting rather than accumulating. The analyst highlighted that the movement of these 107,760 BTC, while the Bitcoin price is below $74,000, implies that a substantial portion of the 1-month to 3-month Spent Output Age Band is either out of the money or near breakeven.
While the exact reason for this movement remains unclear, this shift does not suggest strong conviction among the most reactive investors. RugaResearch stated that exchange inflows can indicate whether these coins are being sold. If they are deposited on exchanges, the sell-off could continue. Conversely, if they are moved to cold storage or over-the-counter desks, it may indicate redistribution under pressure. Therefore, data from centralized exchanges will be crucial in the coming days to understand the purpose of this movement.
Bitcoin Price Momentum Stays Negative For Eight Days
Simultaneously, RugaResearch revealed a concerning trend with the Bitcoin Price Momentum indicator, which has remained negative since May 22nd. After reaching a nearly one-year high of +20.5% on May 5th, the on-chain metric declined by 12.9 percentage points approximately ten days later. Having turned negative just over a week ago, the Bitcoin Price Momentum currently stands at -4.07%. “When 1m-3m spent output spikes 6.7x overnight while momentum bleeds for 8 straight days, the positioning game shifts,” the market analyst concluded.
As of the time of writing, the price of BTC is approximately $73,410, reflecting a minor 0.4% decrease in the past 24 hours.









